Kings Disappointing Playoff Run Surprises Advanced Stats

The Los Angeles Kings were the top team in the NHL this season, according to the most predictive team statistic hockey’s analytics movement has to offer. Now they’re down two games to none against the San Jose Sharks in the playoffs, and in real danger of being eliminated in the first round. How rare is it to see a “fancystats” darling like the Kings fail this early in the chase for the Stanley Cup?First, a bit of background is in order. One of the major breakthroughs in hockey analytics came within the last five years, when analysts realized that instead of relying on conventional indicators like winning percentage or even goal differential, a team’s future performance could be more effectively predicted by its rate of puck-possession. One proxy measurement for this comes under the silly-sounding name “Fenwick close,” which measures the percentage of all even-strength shots taken by a team in its games, after adjusting for score effects. (Overall Fenwick looks at a team’s shots directed at the goal — including missed shots but excluding blocked shots — expressed as a percentage of the total shots in the game.)Since Fenwick became widely available in the 2007-08 season, the close measure has had an impressive résumé in the NHL postseason. From 2008 to 2010, two of the league’s top regular-season Fenwick close teams have won the Stanley Cup (Detroit in 2008 and Chicago in 2010) and a third came within a game of winning the trophy (Detroit in 2009). The track record for Fenwick close leaders after that is more spotty, with zero league finals berths among them, but those teams still advanced to the conference finals twice in three seasons. So in recent years, it’s pretty unheard of for a team like the Kings — this season’s Fenwick close No. 1 — to fall in the first round.But that’s only a six-season sample. What about similar teams before that? Unfortunately, we don’t have the data to compute Fenwick prior to 2007-08, but we can estimate it for older teams using regression analysis. As I and others have shown before with historical plus/minus in the NBA and historical QBR for NFL quarterbacks, if you want to estimate a newer metric for years before it was tracked, you have to find statistics that were tracked at the time and are correlated with the advanced metric in question (assuming the data meets the requirements for regression).After performing such an analysis on hockey stats website BehindTheNet’s Fenwick close sample from the 2007-08 through 2012-13 seasons, I found three conventional metrics that together explain roughly 88 percent of the variance in team Fenwick close:Shots-per-game differential: This one’s pretty obvious: Fenwick is, at its most basic level, a measure of how much a team outshoots opponents.Point percentage: This variable works as a proxy for score effects, which cause a team in the lead to go into a defensive shell, artificially suppressing its shot differential.Power-play goals-per-game differential: This factor essentially measures whether teams are getting more power plays than their opponents, in addition to the quality of a team’s power-play unit — both of which will affect SPG differential without affecting Fenwick.*(* Note: I didn’t use actual PP goals allowed when calculating the differential — the model works best when it uses the team’s real number of PP goals scored on the offensive side, but on the defensive side multiplies the league’s average PP percentage by the number of PP chances allowed by the team per game.)Here’s a plot of our estimated Fenwick close versus actual Fenwick close for the years in which Fenwick was recorded (the NHL average is always exactly 50 percent):As you can see, the results of the model track very closely with reality. That means the model can also give us a “most likely” Fenwick close for teams in seasons before BehindTheNet’s data was available (going back to 1987-88, which is as far back as NHL.com lists shots per game by team). We can also compute the probability that any given team would have been the NHL’s Fenwick close leader if the statistic had been kept during the season in question.Here’s a table summarizing the yearly league leader in Fenwick close each season going back to 1987-88, along with that team’s number of playoff wins. For years before 2007-08, I list the three teams most likely to have led the league in Fenwick close, as well as the probabilities that each in fact did. For pre-2008 seasons, the playoff win totals are weighted by the likelihood that a team was the NHL’s actual leader in Fenwick close.If the Kings do fall to the Sharks after only picking up a win or two, it would be a historically low performance for a Fenwick close leader. In just seven postseasons was it likely that the league’s Fenwick close leader won fewer than four playoff games, which would be indicative of a first-round series loss. And only one playoff year (1993) saw the weighted mean of likely Fenwick close leaders drop below 2.4 playoff wins. (If we assume the Kings and Sharks are evenly matched and the home team has the NHL’s standard 55 percent home-ice advantage in each remaining game, Los Angeles should only expect to win 1.8 games over the rest of the series.)Meanwhile, the median and mean number of playoff wins for Fenwick close leaders going back to 1988 is eight, enough to win a couple series.While leading the league in Fenwick close isn’t necessarily a guaranteed path to the Cup, Fenwick close leaders usually go relatively deep into the NHL playoffs. The Kings are hoping to keep that trend alive, but the odds are pointing to LA becoming one of the most disappointing advanced-stats favorites in a long time. read more

Sarris postmatch reaction inspired City win – Rudiger reveals

first_imgChelsea defender Antonio Rudiger has revealed that Maurizio Sarri’s terrifying post-match reaction after the loss to Wolves inspired the win over City.The Blues suffered a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers last Wednesday despite taking the lead in the first half.The loss to Wolves handed Sarri only his second defeat as Chelsea boss but put a dent to their title aspirations.However, the Blues bounced back with an emphatic 2-0 win over champions Manchester City, ending Pep Guardiola’s side unbeaten run in the Premier League, thanks to goals from N’Golo Kante and David Luiz.Maurizio Sarri, JuventusMaurizio Sarri satisfied despite Juventus’ draw at Fiorentina Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Maurizio Sarri was satisfied with Juventus’ performance on Saturday afternoon after finishing a tough game at Fiorentina 0-0.“After the Wolves game, he was terrifying,” Rudiger said, according to ESPN. “He was going crazy. But that was OK, because we shouldn’t have lost this match.”“The day after, he was very calm and clear-minded. He spoke with us and made it clear that we have to believe in ourselves. He wanted us to go into the City game looking for the win.”last_img read more

IAS cadre sees reshuffle

first_imgKolkata: In a reshuffle in the IAS cadre in Bengal, Dr Preeti Goyal has become the Additional District Magistrate (ADM) of North 24-Parganas.An IAS of 2013 batch, Dr Goyal, who is a medical practitioner, was earlier posted as Sub-Divisional Officer (SDO) Arambagh. She had fought against illegal sand mining as SDO Arambagh and brought an end to the menace in the area. Dr Goyal had also united a 65-year-old woman with her near and dear ones after five decades, after finding out her native place in Nagaland. Also Read – Heavy rain hits traffic, flightsNitin Singhania of the same batch has become the Joint Secretary in Chief Minister’s Office (CMO). He was earlier posted as SDO Kalna. Abhishek Kumar Tiwary, who was Joint Secretary in CMO, has been made ADM Howrah. Dr Rajat Nanda, who was SDO Serampore, has become ADM Hooghly and Nidhi, who is also of the 2013 batch, has become ADM Nadia. Anshul Gupta has become ADM Murshidabad. He was earlier posted as SDO Uluberia.Tshering Y Bhutia, who was SDO Islampur, has become ADM Jalpaiguri. Manish Mihra is the new SDO Islampur. Raju Mishra, who was Officer on Special Duty (OSD) in Higher Education department, has become SDO Khatra. Also Read – Speeding Jaguar crashes into Merc, 2 B’deshi bystanders killedDr Akanksha Bhaskar, OSD of Health and Family Welfare, has become ADO Raghunathpur. Tushar Singhla, OSD of Power department, has become SDO Uluberia.Smrutiranjan Mohanty of 2015 batch has become SDO Rampurhat. He was earlier posted as OSD School Education. Lakshmi B Tanneeru, OSD of the Women and Child Development and Social Welfare department, has become SDO Arambagh.Shevale Abhijit Tukaram has become SDO Kalimpong. Kuhuk Bhushan, who was OSD Finance, has become SDO Haldia. Dhivya L, who was an OSD in Personnel and Administrative Reforms and e-governance department, has become SDO Domkal. Srikanth Palli has been posted as SDO Durgapur.last_img read more

How to Build a Mobile App of the Future

first_img Free Webinar | Sept. 9: The Entrepreneur’s Playbook for Going Global Register Now » September 18, 2013 Mobile apps are no longer, well, mobile apps. They’ve amalgamated with technology that’s vying to get closer to you. I’m not talking about the air-conditioned tie or the iPod toilet dock. Although, the edible rice cracker iPhone 5 case could help with hunger pangs during long working hours.Wearable technology, which makes it sound a lot cooler than saying, “I’ve got a computer chip in my glasses,” is not the only thing that’s pushing the envelope on the mobile app ecosystem. There are app-enabled medical devices, innovation in home automation and even car technology catching consumers’ attention.But no one knows what tomorrow holds including market research firms that predict the market for all wearable technology will more than double to $18.8 billion in 2016 from $9.3 billion this year.What we do know is that consumers are opening up to the fact that their eyeglasses are no longer a simple frame and glass, but pack in a complex computer system; that their watches are no longer about the precision dial, but more about how well they can emulate their mobile phone.Just look under the “Technology” tab on Kickstarter.com and you’ll get a sense of how technology and apps are integrating with our daily lives. Let’s take a look at what’s driving the app economy forward and how that will affect app technology in the future.Popularized by Google Glass and the Pebble Watch, wearable technology seems to be the next big thing, with the likes of Samsung and Intel joining the bandwagon. Wearable technology simply means clothing and accessories incorporating computer and advanced electronic technologies.Some of the most popular accessories are smartwatches, with Samsung launching its latest range called Galaxy Gear and Qualcomm introducing Toq. Intel too has announced a new range of processors aimed at wearable devices. And Nissan isn’t far behind with its Nismo brand.Not only has wearable technology opened doors for entrepreneurs developing new products, it has also benefited app developers by providing a new platform for developing and selling their apps, such as for the Google Glass.Some examples of apps developed for Google Glass are Glass Stocks which allows you to check stock prices right on your glasses and GlassFit, which keeps track of your fitness routines.Wearable fitness devices in particular, have seen considerable traction. Case in point is the Adidas’ miCoach that monitors athletic performance and has sensors that measure speed, pace and distance.Apps like RunKeeper combine the health and fitness industries and also provide an ecosystem for fitness and health-related devices.Keeping with the growth in the wearable health tech space, Qualcomm Life and California health system Palomar recently launched an incubator called Glassomics to support consumer and clinical applications for health-related wearable technology.All that said, huge challenges such as credibility of diagnosis and privacy pertaining to user data still need to be overcome when it comes to wearable health devices.But strides are being made. Big players from across industries such as Intel, Qualcomm and Nissan are investing huge amount of resources in wearable technology thus impacting smart phones, which are beginning to integrate sensors and apps that help foster the wearable tech ecosystem.And as wearable technology continues to innovate and improve, the mobile app industry is more and more ripe for big-data reporting, analysis and implementation. What lies ahead remains to be seen, but the challenges and opportunities are beginning to show up for entrepreneurs and businesses. 3 min read Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. Growing a business sometimes requires thinking outside the box.last_img read more